THE EVOLUTION OF ROMANIAN MARKET OF GDP AND INFLATION IN THE PERIOD 2005-2012

Authors:
• Gabriela PREDA, email: gabi.preda@bnro.ro, Afiliation: Romanian Academy, Romania, Bucharest, National Institute of Economic Research ‘Costin C. Kiritescu’, Department of Economic, Social and Legal Studies

Pages:
• 268|276
Keywords: VAR, inflation, monetary base, central bank
Abstract:
Our approach to the research – the results of which are presented in this paper – is based on the assumption that the relation between the money base and inflation was severely uncorrelated due to the development of technology and the creation of esoteric financial instruments. Since inflation is the key objective of the strategy pursued by the National Bank of Romania, we intend to find out if the monetisation level of the economy still is one of the factors causing inflation. Moreover, we consider the correlation between economic growth and inflation, a question endlessly discussed by academic circles after the crises. By means of an econometric analysis we define some relations of causality among variables to see whether monetary variables influence the evolution of the GDP or vice versa.

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