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  1. Authors:
      • Elena PELINESCU, Afiliation: Institut for Economic Forecasting – NIER, Romanian Academy

      • 101|110

  2. Keywords: exchange rate, vector autoregressive, financial crises.

  3. Abstract:
    The paper analyzes the evolution of the exchange rate in Romania during the financial crisis in order to offer some information regarding how the exchange rates react in the presence of some socks. We used a Vector autoregressive technics and impulse function and the conclusion is that in the case of It is observed that an unexpected shock in the interbank operations and aggregate supply leads to a slight increase of 0.2% in the exchange rate leu / euro and a shock in the foreign exchange market trading volume may lead to a negative shock in the exchange rate  leu / euro, with a continuing influence of 6 months before returning to the previous situation before the shock.  The exchange rate channel is an important tool in taking shocks in national and international economy and the loss of this channel by fixing the exchange rate of the European currency would make it difficult to accept such shocks to the labor market and goods market. 

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